This week’s GDP headlines are certain to stir up a bit of 𝘢𝘯𝘹𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘺. Q1 showed a 0.5% contraction – a second dip could trigger the dreaded “R” word and memories of 2008.
But here’s some good news that likely won’t make the headlines: small business optimism and earnings trends are holding steady. In fact, they’re 𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 than you’d expect if we were sliding into a recession.
According to the latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) data:
💼 The Small Business Optimism Index is holding steady
💼 Earnings trends remain positive
💼 We are seeing no signs of the sharp drop we saw in 2008-09
𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧?
Small businesses make up nearly half of the U.S. GDP and unlike lagging federal stats, NFIB’s monthly pulse gives us a near-real-time view of how these businesses are actually feeling and performing.
At Crosslists Data, we track these trends closely, along with new business registrations, market formation and SMB intent data. And from what we’re seeing on the ground, there’s still plenty of momentum in this very important sector of our economy. Tariff distortions aside, the engine is still running strong, and the noise is louder than the signal. 📈
If your strategy or forecast hinges on economic conditions, especially in SMB-focused sectors, it is worth keeping both the headlines and the small business data in view. OR you can just follow Crosslists Data and let us keep you up to speed on the SMB data you need to know. 💭
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